NEW DELHI: Anna Hazare's anti-corruption agitation and the UPA government's poor handling of it have cost the Congress dear, shaving off one-third of its support while boosting the popularity of its principal rival BJP.
An opinion poll conducted by market researcher Nielsen for a TV channel has found that BJP has gained a 12-point lead since May, when it lagged behind the Congress. Nielsen, which gauged support for different parties then, says Anna's agitation and the government's messy response have upended the pecking order.
Support for the Congress has dropped steeply from 30% to 20%. In contrast the BJP, which was stuck with a low endorsement of 23% in May, stands to get 32% of the vote if elections are held now, the opinion poll says. It also suggests that BJP has overtaken Congress in popularity across India, barring the south. In May, Congress had led the BJP in all regions, save the west.
The pollster claims that 11% of those who voted for Congress in the 2007 Lok Sabha elections have moved away from the party. In comparison, only 5% of those who supported BJP the last time have switched their preference. Even in the south, support for Congress is at a low 20%. BJP has a limited presence in the region. The Nielsen poll is based on responses of 9,000 people across 28 cities and was held after Anna ended his fast on August 28.
The Anna Hazare episode fallout has mauled the image of UPA biggies, sparing not even Rahul Gandhi, an opinion poll conducted by market researcher Nielsen for a TV channel has found. In an Anna-Rahul face off, it says, the Gandhi family scion would be routed, polling a meagre 17% against 78% for the veteran protester from Ralegan Siddhi.
Significantly, the survey shows that Rahul would trail the Gandhian even in the 18-25 age group. Some 54% of the respondents believe this is not the right time for the Congress general secretary to take over the reins from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Nielsen's projections for Union ministers Kapil Sibal and P Chidamabram, the main handlers of Anna's agitation, are similarly dire. Anna's associate Kiran Bedi would win a landslide if pitted against Sibal, picking 74% of the votes. The HRD minister would manage a mere 14%.
Chidambaram, the opinion poll says, would be trounced if fielded against Anna's close associate Arvind Kejriwal. About 58% of the respondents say they would support Kejriwal - Anna's Arjun -against 24% who stand by the Union home minister.
Nielsen argues that the erosion of Congress's support has to do with how it responded to Anna's challenge, as BJP cannot boast of a higher integrity quotient with 75% of respondents holding all political parties equally responsible for corruption. More than 50% feel a Lokpal will be a strong step to combat corruption.
The findings show the government misread the extent of Anna's s support and then compounded matters by arresting him. About 54% of those polled accused the government of messing up things. The ire seems to be directed more against the ministers who were tasked with troubleshooting. About 64% of the respondents criticized the crisis managers. The Prime Minister has been absolved of the blame for the bungle, the findings say.
The respondents also said Sonia Gandhi could not have handled the situation better. They voted for Anna's tactics, derided in many quarters as muscle flexing and blackmail. A thumping 82% of those asked favoured the ways of the Gandhian, with a minuscule 12% disagreeing.
A healthy 56% supported the early enactment of the Lokpal law. Opinion, however, seemed divided on whether the ombudsman would cleanse the country of corruption in the next five years. About 53% felt that the creation of Lokpal would eradicate corruption, but 40% held a dim view of its effectiveness. Almost half the respondents felt that corruption had seeped into the national fibre, although 46% said that unity can help get rid of the scourge.
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